Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 27.159224 28.948203 30.868788 33.097163 35.628587 38.435821 41.814225
2025-11-23 24.766436 27.235196 30.043607 33.523117 37.790008 42.954387 49.850774
2025-11-30 23.159444 25.945240 29.227777 33.467909 38.940589 45.989558 56.184353
2025-12-07 21.797703 24.755062 28.332352 33.103736 39.518596 48.221432 61.731011
2025-12-14 20.232422 23.169400 26.779914 31.693785 38.476839 48.004508 63.547782
2025-12-21 19.523242 22.583368 26.420165 31.774597 39.418095 50.655378 70.284160
2025-12-28 19.022448 22.215461 26.295284 32.130318 40.745584 54.027956 79.044135
2026-01-04 18.190108 21.366135 25.471096 31.431629 40.421237 54.715293 83.057520
2026-01-11 17.909288 21.217152 25.566585 32.029083 42.102649 58.931840 95.328947
2026-01-18 17.547666 20.936451 25.456540 32.304895 43.290138 62.477425 107.590080
2026-01-25 16.944113 20.300127 24.814313 31.733545 43.026657 63.305640 113.674232
2026-02-01 16.408217 19.733309 24.240917 31.225469 42.814130 64.189119 120.304662
2026-02-08 15.685044 18.953944 23.429020 30.459352 42.373498 65.139327 129.682759
2026-02-15 15.345542 18.697520 23.365281 30.879036 44.109122 71.125348 160.844369
2026-02-22 14.913932 18.282577 23.033332 30.822557 44.950480 75.397018 192.204146
2026-03-01 14.452881 17.801935 22.572349 30.509237 45.256507 78.517818 224.713302
2026-03-08 13.794615 17.012807 21.609103 29.286676 43.646662 76.449825 226.637887
2026-03-15 13.508626 16.746258 21.420841 29.356927 44.612610 81.402569 285.062333
2026-03-22 13.300958 16.582245 21.376923 29.665762 46.105844 88.404119 395.724433
2026-03-29 12.893723 16.110655 20.833798 29.058804 45.582686 89.280900 452.970950
2026-04-05 12.767817 16.047026 20.922255 29.577906 47.578484 98.997636 794.658460
2026-04-12 12.587538 15.894475 20.860536 29.817199 48.987796 107.595025 1669.907937
2026-04-19 12.263019 15.514764 20.418428 29.321255 48.612483 109.391350 2734.311684